I remember that. I was wondering where people were getting the ‘5,000 in three weeks’  from. I figured it was a twist of some kind.

I wonder if you’ll get any replies to this post from those who were putting words in your mouth?

I guess that would be me.

Let’s go to the instant replay:

Q3: Monday Morning Mediabase Thread

LLWD spin numbers do not look that good. A hit would be getting at least 5,000 a week after 3 weeks.

Nobody objects to 5000 songs being a hit. I think the universal objection was to the having to get at least that in 3 weeks criteria.

Personally, I think it was our arguments that were twisted.

No as far as singles’ ¦ IMO, successful singles generally follow a pattern of steady adds and increasing spins, with a short lived stall or 2, on the march to its relatively high peak. But that’s only general. Some singles behave differently. So you can’t ever really call it on a song until its really done ‘“ that is, free falling off the chart. So far, Crush is clearly kicking everyone’s ass’ ¦ lol’ ¦ but either one of the current crop’s releases might suddenly catch fire and shoot up. It is relatively uncommon, but it happens. You never know. And if not this song, then maybe the next. In any case, I would be way more concerned about my favorite doing enough to keep their label happy than I would be about winning some theoretical comparisons to past and present Idol contestants. I can promise you their labels don’t give a crap about any of that.

you rock tinawina…

Something like that. Labels nowadays want profit. A lot of it and fast.

I think that people need to look outside of the AI bubble and see the “real life” numbers of current famous artists for their first two or three albums. I think people will be very very shocked how few were really sold and how long it took many Artists to become “well known”. If people believe that you either sell a million out of the gate or you become history…they need to have another think. And pulling a single name out of a hat (and someone with a problematic back story) is another manipulation of the numbers racket. geesh!

Here’s the current Top 10 by airplay

1. TAYLOR SWIFT – You Belong With Me = 107.407 (- 0.675)
2. LADY GAGA – Paparazzi = 103.552 (- 0.150)
3. JASON DERULO – Whatcha Say = 101.750 (- 0.102) â– ²
4. BEYONCE ‘“ Sweet Dreams = 101.557 (- 0.688) â– ¼
5. JAY-Z – Empire State Of Mind = 100.099 (+ 3.073)
6. JAY SEAN – Down f/ Lil Wayne = 95.767 (- 1.240)
7. JAY-Z/RIHANNA/KANYE WEST – Run This Town = 78.313 (- 3.281)
8. KINGS OF LEON – Use Somebody = 75.358 (- 0.657)
9. MILEY CYRUS – Party In The USA = 72.269 (- 0.838)
10. DRAKE KANYE LIL WAYNE EMINEM – Forever = 70.380 (+ 0.140)

it’s only about WHAT I ENJOY and what makes me happy. If my favorite makes it through this next year, tours, makes a second album, and shows up on my radar every now and again I’ll be happy.

Sorry to say, but your fave will only have a second album, a tour, be invited to show up here and there if he/she has good numbers. I think it was Brandy who was dropped of her label right away after selling “ONLY” 300k copies, no? Something like that. Labels nowadays want profit. A lot of it and fast. That’s why everybody is worried about numbers. But if you are willing to travel the entire country to see your fave playing in a small bar somewhere… Good for you, I guess? But I’m sure he/she prefers to be successful, buy a nice house, have a real tour, etc.

If I read you corectly, you are now saying that to be a hit, you have to make the Top 10 of the Billboard Hot 100 chart.

I read it to be an explanation of what it takes to be a top 10 hit. She did not say a song wasn’t a hit if it wasn’t in the top 10.

I can’t remember. How did Clay and Ruben do with their 1st singles and albums?

iTunes wasn’t a factor for single numbers back then and their coronation singles were sold via physical CD singles..not sure about Ruben’s coronation song but Clay’s This Is The Night/Bridge Over Troubled Water single sold 393,000 its first week.

First week numbers for their albums:

Clay – Measure of a Man – 612,859. Current sales to date are approx 2.7 million

Ruben – Soulful – 416,569. Current sales to date are approx. 1.8 million.

Ruben’s first album single, “Sorry 2004″ reached #9 on the BB Hot 100 and #2 on the R&B chart.

Clay’s “Invisible” reached #38 on the BB Hot 100 and #8 on the AC chart.

And it’s cool that Adam has the highest pre-sales numbers of any Idol, ever, at Amazon. Obviously, we don’t know what that will translate to in terms of actual sales. But, who cares? That’s a nice little cap to wear.

For me it’s only about WHAT I ENJOY and what makes me happy. If my favorite makes it through this next year, tours, makes a second album, and shows up on my radar every now and again I’ll be happy. And whether they ‘upstage’  any other Idol is neither here nor there. I want the ‘American Idol’  title to die a very fast death. When it is no longer used in conjunction with my fav I will be a very happy camper indeed.

Agree with this completely. Well, almost completely, I’ll always associate American Idol with Adam and won’t mind it, because without it, I don’t think I would have ever known who he was. Not because I don’t think he’s talented enough to have made it otherwise, but because of various reasons, I don’t think record executives would have ever given him the chance if he didn’t already have the American Idol following. He always speaks highly of Idol and the opportunity it afforded him in allowing him the dream of making a record, so if I have to hear “American Idol” preceding his name for the foreseeable future, I’ll smile when I hear it.

If I read you corectly, you are now saying that to be a hit, you have to make the Top 10 of the Billboard Hot 100 chart. That is an insanely high criteria for a hit. Many songs are big hits and don’t make the Top 10 of the BB Hot 100.

That chart favors songs that get played or urban and rythmic stations.
You can have a very big hit on Top 40 radio and not break into the BB Hot 100.

“It is almost impossible for a song to enter the Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 without significant airplay.:

Crush hit #2 last year based purely on sales. If you sell alot of singles it’s still possible.

EVERY Idol comes into the “real world” with a complete different set of circumstances and influences. So many things come into play while they are attempting to make it in the music business. Some have gigornormous fan bases that are completely active 24/7, who span every on-line poll, vote a thousand times, buy multiple copies of singles and albums. Others have a fan base who follows them around from concert to concert, makes videos of every performance and makes sure they are available on every blog forum.

Some Idols move into a genre, like country, that has a significant impact on music sales and radio play. Some Idols don’t give a damn about being #1..they just want to make money and do their thing. Other Idols are “carbon copies” of what is currently popular and just ride the coat tails of established artists…they aren’t finding a “new” audience, just relying on the hard work that other’s have done before them.

For me it’s only about WHAT I ENJOY and what makes me happy. If my favorite makes it through this next year, tours, makes a second album, and shows up on my radar every now and again I’ll be happy. And whether they “upstage” any other Idol is neither here nor there. I want the “American Idol” title to die a very fast death. When it is no longer used in conjunction with my fav I will be a very happy camper indeed.

But why not push for the single right now with some radio interviews, etc? Just curious.

Very few people know the answer to that question. Barry Weiss, Simon Fuller, a handful of lower tier execs, maybe Adam

The rest of us are going to have to wait until next year and answer that in retrospect.

The AMAs had better be the performance of Adam’s life. I’m counting on it, myself.

I think so too, because he has not done anything to push FYE single. I think once the AMAs (praying he has a stellar performance) are over his promotion will be for the whole album.

But why not push for the single right now with some radio interviews, etc? Just curious.

You know, all I’m discerning from the numbers that are posted is that RCA is promoting Adam’s album right now and not his single. Whether it is a good strategy or not can be debated, but it seems pretty obvious that they chose to go this way deliberately otherwise we’d see Adam hawking the song on radio stations. He’s now getting ready to film the music video. They are going for the ‘package’  deal. AMA performance, interviews and live performances the week of the 23rd and somewhere in there the release of the music video. That all smacks of album and ‘Brand Lambert’  promo, not single promo.

Am I off base here?

I think that’s exactly right.

And they may be doing it because they realize that when you come out with something kind of new, going directly for singles radio play as your entrance into the market may not work so well — so you try to build popularity and buzz and sales for your performer in other ways, since when radio sees that he/she’s *popular* then they’re more like to play it.

Or, they may be doing it this way because that’s the way they roll, just generally, which it is — or at least much more than Jive, at any rate — because we’ve seen similar starts for other RCA artists.

i can go for that trina ‘“ what say ye, o fans of allen and lambert? these are the big dogs, and the guys, and allison, are playing in the big leagues now’ ¦

Well, we could compare the two Davids right now to Carrie/Kelly/Daughtry. Let’s make it current and compare the last couple of months.

I can’t remember. How did Clay and Ruben do with their 1st singles and albums?

Curious because I didn’t give a crap about Idol message boards last year. What standard were the Davids compared to? Carrie/Kelly/Daughtry or Jordin/Blake?? Or merely to each other? Can someone enlighten me?

Mostly each other. The comparisons between the two for the single and albums sales went on quite a while but eventually died down. But they definitely compared to others too and they still are. Till this day DC is knocked for not selling 5 million albums like Daughtry, last year when their first week numbers came out of course it was noted that they both sold more than Jordin being the previous winners. Blake’s numbers were so pathetic he wasn’t used for any standard.

No as far as singles… IMO, successful singles generally follow a pattern of steady adds and increasing spins, with a short lived stall or 2, on the march to its relatively high peak. But that’s only general. Some singles behave differently. So you can’t ever really call it on a song until its really done – that is, free falling off the chart. So far, Crush is clearly kicking everyone’s ass… lol… but either one of the current crop’s releases might suddenly catch fire and shoot up. It is relatively uncommon, but it happens. You never know. And if not this song, then maybe the next. In any case, I would be way more concerned about my favorite doing enough to keep their label happy than I would be about winning some theoretical comparisons to past and present Idol contestants. I can promise you their labels don’t give a crap about any of that.

And I believe that something that I wrote a couple of weeks ago got severely twisted around ‘” what I worte was that all of the Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 songs had over 5,000 spins. And that to be a hit [defined as Billboard Top 10] a song need more than 1,000 spins ‘” usually over 5,000 spins. It took about 4 hours for that to get twisted by some other commenters into a song with less that 5,000 spins is a ‘flop’ . Just to be clear:

I remember that. I was wondering where people were getting the “5,000 in three weeks” from. I figured it was a twist of some kind.

I wonder if you’ll get any replies to this post from those who were putting words in your mouth?

So when the albums drop this month maybe Carrie/Kelly/Daughtry’s numbers are the new standard that should be aimed for when comparing?

Curious because I didn’t give a crap about Idol message boards last year. What standard were the Davids compared to? Carrie/Kelly/Daughtry or Jordin/Blake?? Or merely to each other? Can someone enlighten me?

All adds prior to the add date get counted in the week the song is officially up for adds.

hmmmm. That might explain why Kris had so many adds his “first week of adds”. So, that HUGE number of adds was 3 weeks put together? No wonder.

So when the albums drop this month maybe Carrie/Kelly/Daughtry’s numbers are the new standard that should be aimed for when comparing

i can go for that trina – what say ye, o fans of allen and lambert? these are the big dogs, and the guys, and allison, are playing in the big leagues now…

I just want to know when we declare FYE a flop because it hasn’t hit 5,000 spins weekly on the Top 40 chart.

Personally, I think that benchmark is whack. But what do I know?

I agree that that “5,000 spins = a flop” is a “whack” benchmark.

And I believe that something that I wrote a couple of weeks ago got severely twisted around — what I worte was that all of the Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 songs had over 5,000 spins. And that to be a hit [defined as Billboard Top 10] a song need more than 1,000 spins — usually over 5,000 spins. It took about 4 hours for that to get twisted by some other commenters into a song with less that 5,000 spins is a “flop”. Just to be clear:

About 50% of the Billboard Hot 100 ranking is based on broadcast radio airplay — number of spins wieghted by Arbitron audience measurement to get “airplay points”. It is almost impossible for a song to enter the Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 without significant airplay. The typical Top 10 hit has over 5,000 total spins. And the songs that make the Top 10 with less than 5,000 spins typically has significant airplay in the major markets — because airplay points are the largest component of the Billboard Hot 100 formula.

Here is last week’s Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 with total spins:

1. Fireflies, Owl City 7037
2. Empire State Of Mind, Jay-Z + Alicia Keys 2796
3. Whatcha, Say Jason DeRulo 10097
4. Replay, Iyaz 5991
5. Down, Jay Sean Featuring Lil Wayne 9475
6. Party In The U.S.A., Miley Cyrus 9231
7. Paparazzi, Lady Gaga 10359
8. 3, Britney Spears 7556
9. Russian Roulette, Rihanna 3153
10. Sweet Dreams, Beyonce 8911

Currently there are Top 10 song has less that 5,000 — but they are both songs that have gotten airplay the large markets.

The Hot 100 is often criticized for weighing airplay more than sales. And the ratio given to sales and airplay has been changed many times since 1958. In the 1950s and 1960s sales points were given more “weight” in Hot 100 calculation. As the singles market dwindled in the United States, Billboard to adjusted the sales/airplay ratio to favor airplay points, and now a song can top the Hot 100 Sales chart and sell only a few thousand copies in a week, but a song that sells 40,000 units with no airplay won’t creack the Top 40.

So, to borrow the word “whack” from Kristen, the only thing “whack” is the Billboard Hot 100 — a chart on which Mariah Carey holds the record for the most weeks at number one in total with 93 weeks atop the chart — not because she has sold so much music but because she holds the record for airplay points.

Finally, the Billboard Hot 100 is not the chart used by American Top 40 with Ryan Seacrest — they use the MediaBase CHR and Hot AC, distributed by Premiere. The MediaBase airplay chart is the most commonly used for countdown shows in the US.

However, the industry views the official “add date” as a benchmark and labels tout the adds of their artists based on this date, not how many stations played the song before it went for adds. All adds prior to the add date get counted in the week the song is officially up for adds.

This is why Jive put a big banner on AllAccess after Kris’ add date touting his #2 adds at Top 40.

I’m just going by what I continually read here at MJs regarding out of the gate success based on TOML and Crush and their album sales. I don’t go anywhere else that is Idol-centric, only to Adam sites so I wouldn’t have really seen the comparisons anywhere else.

those discussions and comparisons were first brought into play by fans of lambert and allen… wanting to do the compare/contrast thing, especially w/”crush” being used as the so called performance ”barometer” for debut singles… it’s all good, as long as we keep in mind that no two songs are going to perform alike, or have the same circumstances upon release… what david and david did was remarkable for a winner and runner up coming off idol, and they rightfully deserve their props… but the day will come when they will be replaced by another group of contestants whose releases/numbers will become the new comparison point for another group of fans… and so it goes…

I don’t agree that Kirsten’s analysis showed that FYE is doomed. In fact, I don’t think she did any analyzing. She was just posing questions. Not drawing conclusions.

That’s exactly what I was doing. I’ve never said that FYE is doomed. In fact, I’ve suggested patience and reasonable expectations. Not the 5000 spins per week in three weeks that others have suggested.

I simply like to figure out strategies and if they are working. It’s a total black box, so we may never see the clear picture of what’s inside.