I think fan expectations are sometimes a tad lofty. I know mine have shifted since Season 4, when I first started watching and thought Bo Bice was going to make a “very special” album with Clive Davis. Ahem.

I still say that if these kids can make music, get paid, and not work a day job, then they have come out ahead, even if they aren’t superstars.

The good news for Elliott is that his Target Xmas album sold 90K and radio played his Xmas songs. So he is more than a one hit wonder. Plus, he’s really doing well in Japan and Taiwan. That doesn’t mean much in the US. but it means that the great voice can make new fans. And that pays his bills and keeps him doing the music he loves.

I hope Elliott is signed to a major label when the two album deal with Hickory is over. Being an indie is really rough. Except for Elliott, it’s really been the kiss of death for Idol contestants, sadly.

I think E was in the right place, with the right song, at the right time, with the right connections.

E may not even be able to duplicate that again. I agree it’s going to be very tough for Michael.

I really don’t see MJ selling a lot of records and I’m not even sure how large of a fanbase he has. But, who am I to predict?

Micheal Johns better have a great single that radio is dying to play or ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s going to be very tough.

I’m not sure radio is dying to hear any singles. I think E was in the right place, with the right song, at the right time, with the right connections. I really doubt MJ can duplicate that, but who knows?

As for KLC, why the heck did they sign her and not promote her? Has she received the same promotion as Kellie? I can’t remember what Kellie got.

I’m not terribly impressed with KLC, but if they signed her, they should promote her, no?

I think it’s promotion that kills the indie artists. They may have a few albums in the stores (not well displayed, of course) but the vast number of people in the world don’t know it. I’m glad I didn’t know how tough going indie really is or I would have even been a more anxious Elliott fan than I was.

Elliott just had the whole “lovable” persona thing going after his season. That gave him some buzz to kick start the career and he was lucky to have the Big Top 40 hit. Micheal Johns better have a great single that radio is dying to play or it’s going to be very tough.

Elliott also has a cousin who is a big player in the industry. That doesn’t hurt either.

As far as the Major label thingà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦I apologize for my imprecise words, but my original point was that Bucky, hooked up with a successful label (if not a major one), has a huge leg up on Michael who is on his own.

I know I was being pedantic, but I think it’s important for people to realize just how the Big 4 monopolize the industry. If they control 81.87% of the music biz and companies like Disney are considered Indies, it just shows you how tough it is for Michael. And as much of the actual music those Big 4 control, they have almost a complete lock on the distribution channel.s Major-indies like Disney and Curb have to rely on the Big 4’s distribution arms to get CDs in the stores (Disney uses Universal) . That was one of the major coups that Elliott got. He managed to get one of the Big 4 distribution wings (Sony/BMG’s) to distribute his CD. Most independent artists can’t even get that. Elliott still had to create a CD that people wanted to buy, but if his CD hadn’t have gotten into stores, it would have been even tougher to pull the numbers that he did.

As far as the Major label thing…I apologize for my imprecise words, but my original point was that Bucky, hooked up with a successful label (if not a major one), has a huge leg up on Michael who is on his own. If MJ can hook up with some connected people like Elliott did, he may survive, but the Indie route is a tough road to hoe.

I think personality is important in country music which makes me think KLC is in big trouble even with a huge label behind her.

S5 to me epitomized the show as hype vs. the show as talent. IMO the public figured it out by the next year and said “no thanks”, which is why they had to regroup to emphasizing talent (and getting the “boring” tag from some) for S7.

YMMV!

I have to disagree with that. Bucky has a major label, a great team and promotion behind him. He had TONS of advance promotion before his album came out. Johns is on his own. If only Kristy Lee had been signed by Lyric street. Her promotion so far has been nearly non-existent.

I’m a stickler for terms here, but Bucky does not have a major label. In the music biz, “major label” has a specific meaning and it means one of the Big 4 (Sony/BMG, EMI, Universal or Warner). Together, these 4 account for 81.87% of the US market (and 71.7% of the global market). The rest of the biz scraps over the remaining 18.13% of the market. Sony/BMG itself has 25.61% of the US market (21.5% of the world market).

Bucky signed with Lyric labels which is a sub-label of Disney which has had tremendous success in recent years, but it is not a major (some might call it a major-indie). It’s actually a very tiny operation (and very stream-lined). There is no doubt that Lyric Street is an amazing little label that does a lot. Kristy signed with the second largest music company in the world. She has the contract with the major label. And, let’s not give all the credit to Lyric here, Phil signed with them too and his sales aren’t close to what Josh and Bucky got so I think they get some credit too.

I just like using the Magic 8 Ball and right now all I can see are the Davids, and maybe Jason standing in a year. But I love surprises and maybe S7 will provide some.

For some reason, I’ve always liked Bucky (I don’t like country and normally when somebody does not articulate, it drives me nuts), but I would never have predicted he would be the success he was. Jordin surprised me too. So, sometimes it’s hard to predict.

I think that you underestimate Jason’s fanbase but I won’t even get into that with you. I just wanted to clarify the order of elimination that you confused in one of your earlier posts.

I just like using the Magic 8 Ball and right now all I can see are the Davids, and maybe Jason standing in a year. But I love surprises and maybe S7 will provide some.

TPTB have to be happy with the S7 tour numbers though. It’s a big improvement from last year.

Ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s unfair to compare because heà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s a true indie but if he has as many fans as Bucky, his album should also sell at least in the same ballpark the first week.

I have to disagree with that. Bucky has a major label, a great team and promotion behind him. He had TONS of advance promotion before his album came out. Johns is on his own. If only Kristy Lee had been signed by Lyric street. Her promotion so far has been nearly non-existent.

And as far as the concert is concerned, Michael was a hit. Bucky had his fans, but I know of many people who used his set as a bathroom break.

My impressions are what I’ve experienced at all the many concerts I’ve attended. Attributing 90% of the interest to the David’s is too high, imo.

ETA: I don’t disagree that S5 was more popular, but I thought you made some very broad, general points that needed clarifying.

Kristy Lee is a country star who went out 8th. I don’t think anyone thinks her sales this week will come near Bucky’s who went out in the same spot, her season. Ditto Michael Johns. It’s unfair to compare because he’s a true indie but if he has as many fans as Bucky, his album should also sell at least in the same ballpark the first week.

I think the overall interest in S5 was much broader than S5, bigger ratings, more buzz, etc. And I still think 90% of the interest in S7 is in the two Davids.

These numbers are a tribute to the two Davids and maybe a handful of Jason fans. I don’t see any interest at all in the rest of the crew unlike S5 where almost everyone in the Top 10 had a pretty big fan base.

As a tour verteran (having attended several concerts for each season) here’s my take:

Taylor, Kat, Elliott, Daughtry had “pretty big” fanbases. Ace and Bucky had enthusiast, but smaller fan bases. Kellie had some visible fans. The rest, not so much.

I stood on the M&G bus line for several of the S7 concerts, and while the David’s had the most fans, Jason most certainly had more than “a handful” of fans. He was well represented. Michael Johns also has a fanbase that would, in my opinion, rival either Ace or Bucky’s at the time of the S5 tour, imo. Carly and Brooke also had groups of fans waiting for them, waving signs and screaming for them, not only at the buses but at the concert as well.

Just thought I’d clarify…

I think it should be pointed out that whether or not the KC venue was a sellout or not, it did pull in a paying crowd 2-3 times the size of those at some of the sellout venues.

Sell-outs are kind of fun, but there are a lot of other factors to consider. Having a sell-out in a small venue in a large city may not mean as much as selling 75% of the tickets in a huge venue in a medium sized city. After 6 years, you would think that AI would know how big a venue to pick for each town and how many tickets to make available, but there are a lot of factors involved between seasons (local popularity of a contestant, day of the week, other events, time of the year, etc). Anyway, what I’m trying to say is not selling out a concert isn’t something to be ashamed of.

Kansas City was completely sold out on the first night – it said so on the sign outside the venue, anyway.

That’s not what they reported to Billboard, though. Here is the raw information (annotated):

8 American Idols Live Sprint Center (rank in report, concert name, venue)
Kansas City, Mo. (city)
Aug. 29-30, 2008 (dates)
$1,408,171 (gross revenue)
24,369 / (tickets sold)
26,059 (tickets available)
2 / (number of concerts)
0 (number of concerts sold out)
$68.50, $39.50 (ticket costs)
AEG Live (promoter)

They should have had a 1 in the number of concerts sold out if they’d sold out one of the nights. It could be a clerical error. Or sometimes, concert promoters will announce a pseudo “sell-out”. If there are only single tickets available (i.e. no sets of two seats available), they consider the concert sold out and will report that to the press. Then, when the concert is reported to Billboard and Pollstar, one can see that it isn’t quite sold out (just short of it). Although, it’s strange they would put up a sign outside the venue stating that. Wouldn’t that tend to chase away last minute ticket purchasers (who often don’t mind buying those single tickets if it means a good seat)? Maybe they would rather brag than sell those last 3 tickets. I don’t know.

Anyway, here are a couple of reports that show all of a set of concerts selling out and a sub-set of concerts selling out:

1 Kylie Minogue, DJ Jason Bucham O2 Arena
London, England
July 26-27, 29-30, Aug. 1-2, 4, 2008
$9,881,561
116,375 /
116,375
7 /
7 (7 of 7 sold out)
$97.53, $48.77
3A Entertainment

4 Dave Matthews Band, O.A.R. The Gorge
George, Wash.
Aug. 29-31, 2008
$3,162,624
59,142 /
66,476
3 /
1 (1 of 3 sold out)
$70, $48.50
Live Nation

And just for kicks, this is the biggest selling single concert in this report:

3 Kenny Chesney, Keith Urban, LeAnn Rimes, Gary Allan, Luke Bryan Lucas Oil Stadium
Indianapolis, Ind.
Sept. 13, 2008
$3,835,609 (WOW!)
50,528 /
50,528
1 /
1
$99.50, $79.50, $59.50, $29.50
The Messina Group/AEG Live

Idol isnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t what it used to be, but it is definitely better than last year.

Season 6 had to labor under the yoke of Sanjaya Malakar.

The numbers are really good, considering the economy is in a freaking free fall and gas costs over $ 4.oo/gal.

Season 6 took some of the luster off the Idol enterprise, it is as simple as that. I’m staggered that the number is 86% capacity, given the television ratings weren’t particularly great.

I don’t think shows in places like Cleveland, Green Bay or Fresno were ever intended to sell out in the first place, just ring the register.

I thought that the Utah and Kansas City, MO, venues would be sold out but they werenà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t.

I think both location were sold at 94%, taking in consideration tht this wasn ´t a concert of the homeboys alone (Cook and Archuleta) and that they are new artist I think that the fact that they could sold two days in one city is pretty cool…

Wow, season 5 seems unreacheble…
Thanks for the info Kirsten…

PS.
Seems like the Davids sold out the Ford Mini Concert… good for them…