UPDATE: Hits has revised their original prediction up to 85-90k
Industry mag, Hits Daily Double one-day sales predictions are in, and the news ain’t great for Kris Allen, who is predicted to sell between 75-80K his first week out.
Those numbers would make him the Idol winner with the lowest first week sells, taking the crown away from Jordin Sparks, who sold 119K her first week.
Here’s how the week will shake out, according to HHD
John Mayer – 275k-300k
Norah Jones – 150k-160k
50 Cent – 140k-150k
Casting Crowns – 140k-150k
Andrea Bocelli – 140k-150k
Justin Bieber – 110k-120k
Kris Allen – 75k-80k – 85-90k
Leona Lewis – 60-65k
Note Simon Cowell’s X Factor protege, Leona Lewis isn’t exactly busting up the charts either…
I felt a boot in my star from the animal de compagnie d’ Monsieur Rimbault. That’s ok we live, love, hate, laugh..this is the life.
Well, maybe, except that the first week’s sales are the pre-assembled fanbases. Hype and buzz are all very well, but while I think they’ve probably created interest in Adam I don’t know that they’ve actually created *buyers* for Adam at this point, before anybody’s really heard his music.
For the first week’s sales, I expect whoever had the biggest *Idol* fanbase to have the most sales. And then, in later weeks, I agree that the hype and buzz *should* benefit Adam — although only if the music that the public eventually hears from him fits what they want to buy right now. (although with Kris getting more radio play, that ought to help drive his sales, and how you compare the influence of awareness-of-the-person-as-a-celebrity with awareness-of-a-song-because-I’ve-heard-it-a-lot-on-radio as drivers of album sales, I have no idea.)
So for me the first week’s sales will measure only the size of the loyal part of the Idol fanbase, and, since it’s not one-person-one-vote, I have no idea which of them had the bigger Idol fanbase. My guess is that their Idol fanbases were pretty much equal in size, actually. All along, just looking at how sales in general are going this year, I’ve sort of thought that both the guys would probably sell in the 80,000 to 100,000 range. But were their Idol fanbases relatively equal in size? I don’t think there’s any way to know that. Either one could be twice the size of the other, for all we know, seems to me.
No offense intended, LeHomme. I happen to love SBC. Although I’m not sure Rimbault (or did you mean Rimbaud??) would be all that impressed with Adam or any Idol-produced artist for that matter. Something tells me he’d be more of a Mika fan!
I’m not sure who out there doesn’t see things changing on a daily basis. It’s pretty darn obvious. But the fact still remains that the internet still doesn’t have as big an influence on people’s purchasing decisions as other mediums seem to.
There are still a great number of people who go online mostly to read their e-mail and use the internet only as a work or research tool. The EW Popwatch blog simply does not have the influence that the cover of the physical magazine does. And, there’s a reason that TV commercial time is still extremely expensive, while Google ads are pretty cheap.
The times, they are a changing for sure, but not fast enough to change the landscape in general. These for profit comapnies still have to sell their product, and in most cases (of course there are always exceptions) the internet is still a medium of lesser effect than the old standards.
Wow lucy- nail/head/bingo!
Tess- I always read your posts. Yours are the most realistic.
My opinion as an outsider of AI and fandom:
Worldwide, everything is going downhill except perhaps for health care given this huge proportion of aging baby boomers. Just watch how this group will bankrupt US social security and medicare.
As a form of entertainment, music is not a major preference. The top 8 singers estimated album sales in this blog is 1.185 million. Compared that to the 6.596 million copies sold of the top 8 dvd movies in one week ending Nov. 8, 2009. Dollar-wise, people are 9 times more likely to spend their money on dvds than music albums.
Another is the $20 billion video industry. A single video game Call of Duty-Modern Warfare 2 sold 4.7 million copies in just 24 hours in US and UK.
If we talk about piracy, dvds and video games are easily pirated as CD music.
There is less and less $ now in just selling music. Artists must now have tours or movie appearances to be successful.
Reference: Top 100, June 30, 2009 Forbes.com
Madonna is top among performing singers at $110 million earnings. The money is mostly from her tours.
Miley Cyrus had TVs and movies. She earned $25.
Taylor Swift earned $18 million. She had tours and a lot of video music. She is now planning to go into movies
The only AI alumni making to the top 100 is Carrie Underwood at $14 million.
As comparison the bottom 100 US president B. Obama had a reported income of just $2 million.
The bottom line- relax, wait and be realistic.
Lucy–it amazes me you say things like they are no matter what, no sugar coating…./bravo!!!!
ouch! we I went to the halloween as a bouffon and you my lady as a femme d’ diabolique. I’m sure when Joan was getting the fire someone as magnificent as yourself was adding more heat. Again let us live, love, hate and laugh in peace..btw it is Edward Fracis Rimbault-dear lady I called you his companion not a poet or writer. ciao
Please do not stone me over an n. boot.
I know this thread is dead but I just want to tell Lucy – YES! Thanks!
I did not read all of these posts, so someone may have already pointed this out. I think the problem with the idols is that the record companies expect instant sales from them. They hope to have a new artist that can quickly generate sales. As a result, they may have less patience with them then with other artists that they are willing to invest in. What was it Clive Davis said at one point? Something about idols being cash cows as opposed to artists? I think, RCA in particular, believes this. Maybe they’ve changed their view now that Clive isn’t directly involved anymore? I guess we’re going to find out.
LeHomme, my French isn’t very good, but your online translator is cracking me up. Are you comparing Adam Lambert with Joan of Arc (Jeanne d’Arc)? Well, allrighty, then!
You are correct it’s not very good. Let us move on please. good day my lady.
Good analysis lucy, that’s very real to me!
The posters on this thread actually seem pretty chill to me, and I haven’t seen a proliferation of delusion going on.
Also – Madonna is an industry unto herself, and in no way relates to people who won a tv talent show. Yes, she makes the bulk of her money from tour revenue. But, that’s because she’s spent the last 25 plus years selling millions upon millions of albums and putting on really great shows. And now, the people who bought those don’t think twice about paying to see her live.
Yes Jersey - I agree with you. The concern isn’t that a cd can’t go the slow but steady route and reach success – I think it’s that these labels don’t usually give the Idol kids that opportunity.
I was shocked to see they had predicted less than 100K for Kris’ first week sales. Although I have no interest in purchasing his album, it really seemed to me like Kris was popular enough with fans to debut around 200K. Does anyone else think this number is surprisingly low for the Idol winner?
I agree lucy. The only thing is that your pre-assembled fanbases also have varying levels of connection to media (TV, radio, internet, what-have-you) that will inform them that an album is NOW available for purchase. The more hype and buzz you have, the more your fanbase will know about the album release schedule and the more buzz they hear the more they’ll get excited to buy your music. Also, let’s not forget that fanbases have a tendency to lose interest if you don’t keep them constantly ‘fed’ with news.
Truer woids was nevah spoken.
Anyone who can make a living doing what they love, is a success. The end.
Good point. The hype and buzz may fire up the pre-assembled fanbase more than it actually creates much buying outside the fanbase.
In a universe where people define “better singing” according to what they find personally pleasing to the ears? You may think Adam is the better singer, but others may not. Just because he can hit high notes does not make him the better singer. If that were the case, then anyone who can hit high notes should go on to be successful because they are deemed the “technically” best singers. Allison, Matt Giraud, Danny Gokey and Lil Rounds then should have eclipsed Kris because they could hit higher notes than he could. The fact is Adam and Kris are musically incompatible. It’s like comparing Andrea Bocelli with Michael Buble. Because Buble can’t sing like Bocelli, he’s automatically the better singer?
Singing is subjective. Popularity can be measured in sales/spins but ‘better’ isn’t measurable.
Lucy said it best regarding current vs. quality music. 20 years from now, Taylor Hicks’ “Maybe You Should” will have held up a lot better than Kelly’s “My Life Would Suck Without You” although the latter still will have outsold the former 100x over. It’s best to enjoy the music for what it means to you personally, rather than angsting over sales numbers.
Haven’t read all the post yet.
I’m glad to know that I’m not the only one that can’t download the I-tune pass yet. This is crazy. last night I was so happy because I watch about 8 tittles being downloaded, and yet can’t find them. I have the other videos, what is so different with this album download ?
I read that there are no tittles on them. Maybe lost inside my computer somewhere ?
The I-tune people said that I have to be patient while they are trying to resolve the problem, but yeah my Kris Allen meanwhile is being cheated out of some albums. That is just great.