From Mediaweek’s Programming Insider:
As expected, it was a huge overnight victory for Fox on this third Tuesday of 2008, with the seventh season-premiere of American Idol at an 18.6 rating/27 share from 8-10 p.m. Comparably, that outdelivered the second highest rated show of the evening, CBS’ NCIS (10.2/15), by a hefty 82 percent. But year-to-year, American Idol actually dipped by 15 percent from its sixth season-opener on Tuesday, Jan. 16, 2007 (21.8/31). So, at this point it is safe to say that American Idol has officially peaked.
I’ll post more specific numbers as they come in…
As expected, it was a huge victory for Fox on this third Tuesday of 2008, with the seventh season-premiere of American Idol at a hefty 33.24 million viewers and a 13.8 rating/32 share among adults 18-49 from 8-10 p.m. Comparably, that more than doubled the second most-watched show of the evening, CBS’ NCIS (Viewers: 15.91 million). But year-to-year, American Idol actually dipped by 4.20 million viewers and 13 percent among adults 18-49 from its sixth season-opener on Tuesday, Jan. 16, 2007 (Viewers: 37.44 million; A18-49: 15.8/36). So, at this point it is safe to say that American Idol has officially peaked.
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Wow! The shark has been finally jumped? How does it compared to season 5 premiere? IIRC, this is the first time an AI premiere got a rating under 30 in many many years.
Yeah…wow.
Ouch! That’s quite a drop. Wonder what excuse Nigel will use this time. He can’t blame it on an early switch to DST or the contestants, yet. He’ll probably try blaming the strike.
“Yes, that’s right, we are the only show airing new episodes, so that hurt us. People know that if they watch the show, they will feel compelled to talk about it the next day around the water cooler. They’ll feel guilty because the other people won’t be able to talk about their shows favourite shows too. So, our fans didn’t watch so they could avoid this awkward situation”.
Season 5 had 36 million viewers (MJ keeps those charts listed on her “Historical Charts” tab), but she only shows the 18/49 rating.
Here is a link to an article last year about the ratings for the first show: Hollywood Reporter
Season 6 premiere was up 5% over Season 5.
Kirsten,
Let me echo that OUCH and as you eluded to, that’s even considering the writers strike! I did watch the “train wreck” last night. I’m not going to vote this year obviously because of Nigel trying to blame last year’s failures on the top 2 which was a bad move IMO and I think it has somewhat come back to bit him in the butt and that’s putting it politely.
Revamp Revamp - shake it up! Replace Ryan Seacrest at the auditions. Have somebody else interview the contestants! Get rid of Paula with somebody else please! Bette Midler, Lulu, anybody. And have Randy shave his beard and mustache — what the heck is that about?
I think everybody is waiting for Hollywood Week.
Let’s wait and see the final numbers. This just might be a watershed event in AI history. An AI premiere with a under-30 share is unbelievable. Will TPTB blame it on season 6? LOL..
I do think that is only slightly lower, if at all lower, than the finale last season though. Last year’s highest ratings, by far, were in the audition episodes.
Looking at the historical charts, the final number for the opener last season was 36M viewers. An 18% drop (if it stands after the small markets come in) would equate to about 29M viewers this time around, which would be only about a 4% decrease from last season’s finale. I think what happened was that some viewers are gone for good after the disaster last season. It is up to AI to get them back and a string of great singers is what it will take. No more Sanjayas or Antonellas.
Not surprised at all. S6 debut got the big audience from S5 fans. I wouldn’t be surprised if overall Idol ratings drop 25-30% this year. A reality show that doesn’t deliver on its premise two years in a row is going to decline. Unless they have incredible talent coming up I don’t see any way to reverse it. The format feels tired too.
I agree jpfan, they should change the format completely for Season 8 (or Season 7 if they quickly read this before the top 50 is whittled down, and don’t mind the finale airing a week later). Here is an idea:
The Top 24 becomes the Top 32 once again, who are drawn into four groups as pulled from a hat live on the air (completely random). That forces Idol on the air five nights a week for two weeks.
In each group, the first week sees the top 32 on the air, 8 each night, with the bottom 2 in each group (8 total) eliminated. The second week runs the same way with 6 each night (top 24). The third week runs with groups 1 and 2 combined and groups 3 and 4 combined (top 16), with the bottom 2 in each new group eliminated to form the top 12.
But there is a twist! It is not a top 12, but a top 14! That means the return of the wildcard show! In the fourth week, 12 contestants - all of whom were cut before the top 24 (no second chance for those voted out) chosen in an online vote - will return for a single night. The TOP 2 voted among them join the top 12 to form the top 14. Such would keep fans interested longer in those who were cut, and would give them interest in driving their fan bases for an online vote.
The top 14 runs the same, except two are eliminated in the first two weeks (14 to 12, then 12 to 10).
Here’s some numbers MJ…
Fast National ratings for Tuesday, Jan. 15, 2008
On the one hand, Tuesday’s “American Idol” premiere was off a fair amount from last year’s debut. On the other, it still destroyed everything in its path.
Surprising absolutely no one, FOX and “Idol” dominated the night with a 17.8 rating/26 share in households and 33.2 million viewers (down about 11 percent from last year’s 37.4 million). CBS led the rest of the pack with an 8.7/13, followed by NBC at 5.8/9. ABC, 3.4/5, finished fourth, and The CW trailed with a 1.4/2.
http://www.zap2it.com/tv/ratings/
33.2M viewers? That is actually up about 7% from last season’s finale…
I wonder if they’re back to their Season 4 numbers. That would make sense as Season 5 has vanished from their opening. LOL.
I bet all the other stations are gnashing their teeth this morning. They finally have a shot at knocking AI down a few pegs and they have virtually no big shows left because of the strike!
jobbix
Jan 16th, 2008 at 11:37 am
Will TPTB blame it on season 6? LOL..
No…Taylor.
It’s just the first show. Way too early to panic and revamp the whole format! Besides, anyway you look at it they OWN the ratings for that night. If the show develops some positive buzz this year, the ratings will start to climb up again.
Thier was a season 5? I thought like with buildings skipping the 13th American Idol went from 4 to the 6th season. The excpetion is Daughtry whom is really in season6.
The dog ate it is a good excuse.
Sigh of relief from TPTB. Share climbed over 30 with the update. AI still rulez…lol
It looks like they are all the way back to Season 3 numbers. Ken Barnes says this was the lowest ranked season opener since 2004.
Putting on my inner-Simon hat:
I’m sorry, but that’s just not good enough. So, they won the evening? So what? Big deal. Ratings are down when there was no competition. This is like being rated the best dish at a Holiday Inn buffet. So, you’re the best! Whoopee. You’re still ghastly.
\Simon
Really, given that they are really the only new thing on TV and viewers are starved for fresh programming, the fact that they took such an enormous drop cannot be good news. Except for one group. I think this is very good news for the WGA. The biggest reality show on TV stumbles. They can argue that viewers are getting out of the habit of watching TV. Everybody will suffer unless a critical mass of new, interesting programming is on TV (Nigel will agree with them because he always needs somebody else to blame…it’s either the strike or sun spots).
BTW I think Nigel needs to stop blaming previous contestants for low rating. It annoys their fans. I know that he thinks that it doesn’t matter. That losing a few fans is okay. But he’s like those tribes on Survivor who get so cocky that they throw a competition so that they can get rid of somebody on their team they don’t like. This always causes momentum to shift and the next thing they now the tribe is struggling for life. Momentum can shift on American Idol, too. Nigel needs to work on attracting fans, not alienating them. AI may continue to be a profitable show, but it may lose it’s status. I say this as a fan of ER, a show which is having one of it’s best seasons in years, but nobody seems to be watching.
Just as the excitement that Season 5 generated led to an enthusiastic opening to Season 6, that was soon quelled by what essentially was a really boring season. So the numbers started dropping as the season continued limping (IMO) towards the less-than-exciting finale and the subsequent tour.
So, the lack of enthusiasm for Season 7 may be a bit of a bleed over that. However, I do feel if S7 has some worthy, interesting, diverse talent, word of mouth might lead to its doing better as the season progresses.
That said, in this strike year last night’s show should have just KILLED in the ratings and, while it did kill the competition, it was not the blockbuster they were expecting it to be.
Season 6 has ruined American Idol beyond repair. lol
Before suggesting that ratings have tanked again, they are up by about 2.5 million viewers over last season’s finale…
I guess have to wait and see after the top 24 gets going how the ratings do. Someone stated last year the audition were high then it went down a small bit.
Poporage,
You’re right, the OVERALL rating is a 27 share. But in the “coveted” 18 -49 year old group, the share is a 32. I’m sure the 32 number will be emphasized more because it looks better.
But the bottom line is, in regards to the OVERALL rating - AI is down 15% from last year. (and down 13% in the 18-49 year old group).
The most-watched episode last year was the season premiere: 37.4 million viewers, 15.8/36. The average for the auditions was 34 million, 13.8/34. However, once the competition got underway, the ratings tumbled to an average of 27 million viewers, with an average rating of 10.8/28. Even the finale couldn’t match any of the audition episodes, with an 11.5/31 and 30.7 million viewers. The 7 most watched episodes last season were audition episodes.
The lowest-rated episode last year was the top 3 performance, with 9.4/24 and 24.4 million viewers.
Count me in on those who didn’t watch last night - and won’t watch tonight. I didn’t even watch the first hour, even though Comanche Moon didn’t come on until AI’s second hour.
However, I don’t blame Season 6 Idols for my lack of interest in this year’s show. The blame is entirely on TPTB for the remarks they’ve made in the press, and the way they presented AI last year. So, frankly my dear Nigel, Clive, Simon(s), etal - I don’t give a damn.
I’m free!
Everybody is reading tea leaves…LOL. I don’t know. I think it’s just the lingering effect of season 6. It may take a few weeks to get S6 out of the system. The show can rebound with a strong pool of talents. But if last night was any indication, I didn’t see any standout.
I agree. They may have opened their mouths once too many times about their past contestants.
Someone on this board made a really good suggestion: Idol should do a week blitz. Show all the auditions in one week, Mon-Friday or Tues-Sat and then begin weekly broadcasts with Hollywood week, which is the most interesting, and the eliminations. Then go into the finals on a weekly basis. 20 weeks is too d***n long folks. In their quest to milk it for everything — they have shows that are too long; the results show should only be 1/2 hour not one hour.
Even Patti Labelle’s Clash of the Choir was one week blitz. So reality shows can be done in one week. But you know the TV higher-ups, they want the traditional way of doing things. But doing it traditionally will harm the show.
I thought last night was OK, it was the same-o, I didn’t expect anything revealing. But they also need to get a different spokesperson than Ryan. He looked scruffy, he didn’t have much to do, and he looked tired.
Snuffles I maybe wrong on that count too the second set of numbers do have both the age rang and overall over 30million. Thier are soo many numbers out there hard to keep track of what is what. I guess the only ones looking deeply are the producers. American Idol has no competition at all unless some other reality show comes along and is fresh and new and grabs the audiances attention .
You know, Paula, though I’m a Taylor fan first and foremost, it’s not “just” that they have treated him so poorly, they don’t have ANY right to put down ANY of the winners OR THE AUDIENCE WHO VOTES! THEY chose the ones that America voted for, so if a particular contestant wasn’t worthy of America’s votes, then who the hell is to blame for THAT? THEY are!
PERIOD.
I can’t repeat it enough — they need BIG STARS TO MAKE IT TO THE FINALS. The audience likes to know they helped create a really big star!
And let’s not even mention Season 6, I’m tired of people beating up on Season 6. Season 6 is not the culprit! They need to produce a big star. And rotate the judges and the host.
You know, Paula, though I’m a Taylor fan first and foremost, it’s not “just” that they have treated him so poorly, they don’t have ANY right to put down ANY of the winners OR THE AUDIENCE WHO VOTES! THEY chose the ones that America voted for, so if a particular contestant wasn’t worthy of America’s votes, then who the hell is to blame for THAT? THEY are!
PERIOD.
————————-
PERFECTLY WORDED!
Opps–forgot to credit Desdemona for the previous quote!
Thank you, Chrissy. As for Melanie - I just have this feeling she’ll have an albatross around her neck, simply because she was backup singer for that loser, Taylor who-never-should-have-won Hicks.
ETA: Chrissey - not to worry - I should get off my soapbox now anyway and just lurk. I enjoy reading others’ take on things regardless of how I feel.
ETA again: I missed this if it was already posted in headlines:
Making History all over again and rewiting it a little, too
I agree with everyone who says S6 is partly to blame. After all, the only reason S6 ratings were so high to start with was because S5 ended with a bang, and it left viewers wanting more. In order for S7 to secure the raitings AI is used to, they are going to need to offer more, and showcase more talent. I’ve got my fingers crossed, last night wasn’t *that* bad, so there is hope for S7 :)
I was pleasantly surprised at last night’s show as there was not as much time spent ridiculing contestants!
I was also not surprised in the least to see prominent pics of Jordin behind the judges and auditioners - after all she won the previous year. From what I recall, that is how they have done it every year EXCEPT last year when they made sure not to show Taylor at all or speak his name unless in a derogatory manner (save for the fact he was featured in the intro part of the show last year). And the same treatment of Taylor continued last night. The blatant ignoring of a past winner who was put in the top 24 by THEM is what makes the show such a joke to me. I did cave in and vote for Phil, Mel and Blake last year, but I will not vote again. I will watch for entertainment only.
At work where Idol used to be discussed daily - not one word. Maybe interest will pick up but TPTB ruined last year and I do think Season 6 had a very talented group so it makes me sad for them.
I think often about the fact that most of the country doesn’t follow the Idols on the internet or their sales numbers, and some must think it strange that the show doesn’t even support all it’s own winners or runner-ups for that matter. Kinda sad it can’t support them all. How fun it would be to have all the winners back each year instead of seeing Carrie (who I like) 3 times in one season - bet we will be seeing alot of her this season too - we will see - JMO of course.
ETA: It would be fun to see about any of the other seasons’ top 12 compared to seeing Carrie so many times in one season IMO.
Does not suprise me at all, Look at the way they treat the winners of AI. Season 5 of AI was the first and the last for me. GO TAYLOR HICKS!!!!!
But it is not about ratings. It is about units.
I’m not too surprised at the numbers being lower because maybe people are telling them that they’re sick of watching the auditions. Bad singing gets old fast imo. I don’t think we can say they didn’t have any competition because most of the shows they were up against were new shows. I wonder who Tivo will impact these early episodes before voting comes into it? We’re just watching now although we’re fast forwarding through much of it.
Don’t forget that DVR penetration has grown upwards of 22% since Nielsen started measuring timeshifted viewing in 2005. So you’re not even comparing apples to apples, really, if you’re only looking at live data across the seven seasons.
The official currency is the Live Plus data, not the Live data. On a national level, Live, Live Plus Same Day and Live Plus Seven Days numbers are produced. In the local markets it’s Live and Live Plus Seven. The Live Plus Seven numbers won’t be released until a week from today. I am expecting to see at least a few ratings points added once that data is available. No one can say it’s a drop until those numbers come out.
Not at all surprised by the numbers for last night’s show, watched and was unusually bored, too much filler, too few good singers, silly back stories ” I sold my horse and am a cage fighter to boot!, lol. When even Simon looks frightfully bored and uninvolved, , why should the viewer be interested?
AMEN! That “America got it wrong” bull that Nigel, Clive, and Simon have been spouting is a direct slap in the face to every single American that has voted–not only for Taylor, but for ANY of the contestants. I’m shocked (well, not really :)) that they haven’t wised up to the fact that insulting a huge chunk of the audience won’t help your ratings.
TPTB simply need to put on their big girl panties and deal with the FACT that Taylor won, and deservedly so.
I also want to give major props to the editor who made sure that Melanie’s POSITIVE words about Taylor were included in the show last night. Maybe there’s someone behind the scenes that’s on our side after all. :)
I have to say that I don’t get the AI is dissing Taylor vibe based on what I’ve seen thus far. His mugshot is directly behind Simon and since the camera tends to focus on Simon, Taylor was consistently in view for most of the evening.
What really surprises me, though, is that season 5 is still hashed over so thoroughly…and it is now Season 7 and a full 2 years after the fact.
Oh well. I’ve enjoyed the auditions thus far and await to see what happens down the road…
I read the guidelines, MJ. I think I’m okay with my comments. If not, feel free to delete. I’m trying your blog again after an extended hiatus.
“His mugshot is directly behind Simon and since the camera tends to focus on Simon, Taylor was consistently in view for most of the evening.
You need to watch Simon closely - he gives Taylor’s mugshot the stinkeye at every opportunity.
hello??? writer’s strike, anyone??? less people in general watching tv and flipping through the channels means lower ratings across the board.
the only programming that’s exempt is big game sports.
otherwise, for AI to pull in those ratings is still not too shabby.