Top 3 Results Show Wrap Up and Predictions

Look at that. Matching thumbs!   As an act of solidarity, Kris Allen’s been sporting a blue thumbnail while Adam Lambert’s corresponding digit is polish-free.

Aw.   I’ll admit it.   I like my finals warm and fuzzy.   And what can be cooler than these two guys–so obviously from different backgrounds and worldviews–who respect each other nonetheless.   Culture war bullet–dodged. Whew.

This year, I like both competitors.   And while I’d like for Adam Lambert to take it all–I think he’s brought it big time every single week on that Idol stage–I’d be perfectly OK with a Kris Allen win.   We’ve got two really talented guys with really different styles.   Adam is the extroverted song stylist, while Kris is the introspective song interpreter.   This week’s final is gonna be full of WIN, I tell ya.

Adios Danny Gokey.   His exit interviews with the press were eye opening.   I see the guy who tried out for Idol 4 weeks after he buried his wife not as an opportunist, but as grief-stricken and desperate to make sense of her tragic death.   The problem is, a grief stricken guy is in no position to make sound decisions.   A karaoke reality show is really a sh*tty vehicle for working out grief, and is hardly a substitute for, say grief counseling.   But I’m not blaming the folks who criticized him either.   Foks who tune into reality TV to escape, you know, reality were bound to recoil at having a contestant’s raw grief flung in their faces. For votes no less.

And I’m not blaming Danny who appeared naive, socially awkward and vulnerable.   I’m blaming the people around him–his sister’s photo flashing family who sought the camera rather than talk him out of a colossally terrible idea, his rolex-loving pastor egging Danny on to further his own agenda, and Idol producers who used Danny’s grief to pimp for votes and ratings.   The whole deal was a bad one from the get go.

The worship leader from Milwaukee who seemed to know nothing of current music, or have a clue about his own gifts would have been a terrible winner.   I can’t even imagine what TPTB would have done with him.   Better that he goes back to Milwaukee in 3rd place where he can run his heart foundation with a higher profile.   He’ll make gospel records, and in that world he’ll be a hero.

A last word: Danny, free to be himself without worrying about votes, has been telling the press he wants to start a “movement” a “revolution” with his music.   Good luck with that skippy, and I’d suggest walking the walk rather than just talking the talk…

Onward, and upward, peeps.

Kris Allen’s risky acoustic rendition of “Heartless” was a game changing performance that stunned and surprised many.   It was surely an Idol moment, one that will be talked about after this season is over.   That unassuming singer/guitarist from Conway Arkansas has nads of steel, peeps.   He’s kept his cool throughout this competition, turning out consistently good performances week after week.

He was cannon fodder to be sure, at first. But I’ll maintain he’s gotten his share of props from the judges.   Simon praised Kris’s semi-final performance of   “Man in the Mirror”, telling Kris, “You may have put yourself in the running.” And indeed it did, with Simon’s subtle pimping (and front-runner Matt Giraud butchering “Viva La Vida”) playing a part.  Ãƒâ€š   After country night’s “Make You Feel My Love”, Simon told Kris “I am genuinely beginning to think you have a shot in this competition.”   He also praised, “Ain’t No Sunshine,”   “She Works Hard for the Money,”   and of course, “Falling Slowly,” which Simon called “brilliant.”

Sure, there was Simon telling Kris during Motown week that he lacked confidence, calling his birth year performance of   “All She Wants to do is Dance” indulgent (I kinda agreed), accusing Kris of not wanting to win the competition after he performed “The Way You Look Tonight” on standards night and the across the board drubbing Kris got on rock night for “Renegade” and “Come Together.”

But the judges reactions–particularly Simon–to Kris over the entire season, has often been supportive. Maybe it’s not so surprising that the bus folks kept waiting on to back over Kris Tuesday night never came. And maybe, despite all the talk show chatter from the judges about wanting that Danny/Adam final, when Kris busted out the awesome “Heartless” standing his ground in his own quiet way, Simon and the gang cried uncle. And instinctively embraced a good TV moment when they saw one. The water coolers are still buzzing…

Adam Lambert, the contestant with all the buzz, didn’t sail into the final as Idol watchers assumed he would. Ever since Adam’s appearance in the Bottom 2 Top 5, the press and the blogosphere have considered his elimination a real possibility.   And as other contestants fell away, there’s been questions about where those votes were going, and if maybe Adam peaked too early, or that America isn’t as in love with Mr. Lambert as the press is.

But, It’s all good.It’s better for the show that Adam didn’t sail into the finals.   And better for Adam.   Neither Kris or Adam is a sure bet at this point, making this year’s final a nail-biter we haven’t had since the Clay/Ruben battle back in Season 2.

Who will win? I don’t think I can make a meaningful prediction until after the show Tuesday. Much will depend on individual performances and how evenly matched Kris and Adam are.   If Kris isn’t allowed to re-arrange his songs, and/or Simon Fuller hands him a crappy song to sing, his hands could be effectively tied.   But at this point, I’m not sure how keen TPTB are for an Adam Lambert victory.   The suspense is pretty awesome.

I’ll give a tentative prediction a shot.

Heading into the final with plenty of momentum and buzz, Adam Lambert will win American Idol. With his outsize performance style and mad vocal chops, Adam is going to kill on that big cheesy coronation song.

Don’t hold me to that, peeps.

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198 Responses to “Top 3 Results Show Wrap Up and Predictions”

  • ettacandy:

    Kirsten, I heart your post at the tippity top :thumbup_tb:
    Looking forward to Tuesday and Wednesday!!!

  • glambert:

    delurking here……

    I am a huge Adam fan and I will feel crushed if he does not win.

    I like Kris, but his music bores me. I downloaded one of his songs but I never listen to it. But, I listen to Adam’s all day every day. he has inspired me to listen to music again. He vocals are unmatched and he is such a performer. His concerts will be amazing; but I can picture falling asleep at Kris’s, not that I would go. Kris’s music just does not MOVE me, whereas Adam’s does. I sing and dance when Adam’s music is playing.

    Adam is the WHOLE package: vocally superior, a great performer and sexy as all get out. He draws me in to his performances.

    Like I said, I will feel CRUSHED if somehow Adam does not win.

    FYI – I am 54 with 3 adult children and I have not bought music since Daughtry’s first CD, which I never listen to. My music preferences over the years went to new age, because there was just nothing in rock or pop that I could stand. I bought tickets to 2 Live Tour concerts this year, and I never even considered going in the past. Heck, I never even watch AI all the way through, until this year. Adam FTW!!!!

  • jlc:

    I’m calling it a tie…and we all live happily ever after…(or at least until next season!)

  • maturin:

    Every year at this time I relisten to all my favorite performances in preparation for the finale in an attempt to restore my Lost Objectivity. As usual it fails.

    At this moment in time I believe that:

    If you dropped Kris Allen and his guitar in the middle of a remote desert on the other side of the world, soon he would be surrounded by a little crowd of herdsmen and yaks looking lovingly at him and saying “I love his subtle phrasing!” (in Mongolian) while stealthily trying to touch his pure, white t-shirt.

    If you shot Adam Lambert into space and he landed on an alien planet–with breathable air, so he could sing–and he started belting out Feeling Good, pretty soon HE would be surrounded by a horde of aliens waving their tentacles and screaming OMG OMG through their various orifices and talking about THE NOTE and how Adam was definitely going to change the face of Mxtpplnglly forever!

    I already don’t care so much about the performance night, because of results night coming!

    I am still in love with David Cook, and me and 30 million people have a date with him on Wednesday night. Also, we get to hear Allison sing again! And Matt and Anoop! Danny and Lil will no doubt have big numbers. And Blind Guy, Oil Rig Guy, Caw Caw Girl, and the couple of people I’ve forgotten already. And guest stars! Group numbers!

    KRADAM duet.

    I am not going to get ANYTHING done the next two nights.

  • weareallinnocent:

    LOL ^^ Love it maturin! Nice job~

    Thanks for your thoughts MJ. Very insightful as usual~

  • sauer1:

    I have to say that unfortunately for me Kris is somewhat bland. He may be able to write music and arrange it but if you can’t sell it, it doesn’t really much.

    Adam delivers with every performance. You stop to see what he is doing and how he is doing it. He is a truly amazing artist.

    Adam fans unfortunately Kris’ fans are strong and there are alot of little girls that will be voting with their little fingers. Unless Adam’s fans take this very seriously he won’t have a chance. I would hate to see what happened last year. David A. totally killed in the finals but he still lost by many millions. We unfortunately need to take all four hours and vote. Dial Idol, etc. I’d hate to see him as the non-winner as he clearly deserves to win.

    Adam will be a superstar either way but I really want to see him with the win and the confetti, etc. We need to be out in forces.

  • smokeyvera:

    I just got a revelation. Simon doesn’t want Adam to win. He wants to be able to sign him to his SONY/SYSCO/OMG label. He sees the star potential and Adam’s worldwide appeal. He knows that Adam has the “it” factor and is already an international sensation.

    Case in point, last year a Welsh guy by the name of Rhydian was on X-Factor, almost the equivalent of Idol in the UK. Leona Lewis is also a winner on this show. Rhydian was an OTT performer and showy and artistic and a fantastic singer and the accolades Simon gave him were stupendous week after week and said the pimping that he would win. Well he didn’t – he lost to a Scottish guy. Simon immmediately signed Rhydian to a contract and Rhydian is now touring to phenomenal success after his CD came out to rave reviews. The other guy, a flash in the pan.

    Simon knows a star and Adam is it. Simon Fuller doesn’t want Adam competing with Doughtery, too much money invested and Adam would be a definite threat. So Adam wouldn’t get artistic license to be a rock star. I know Adam wants to do a mulivaried album. Rhydian did that and is OTT successful. Simon allowed him to do his material and I have even watched a youtube video with Simon and Rhydian talking about why Rhydian chose the songs he chose. It all came down to Rhydians artistic expression and what he felt would work. Simon allowed that.

    So I firmly believe, he would allow Adam artistic license. He keeps the pimping up and he knows how America acts – support the underdog. Simon is smart and he knows what’s good for his wallet. Adam is good for his wallet.

    Look at the success of IL Divo, another group that gets artistic license from Simon.

    I love Adam and I want what is best for him. Freemantle 19 may not be it. Simon Fuller I believe wants Kris, he’s mellow and middle of the road. I like Kris, but I prefer Adam music. So now I am caught in a dilemma. Adam wants it, but I don’t think Adam understands that signing with SONY/Sisco may be better for him. I weill be voting nonstop, but I have a feeling Kris is going get it, there is too much rallying of fans going on.

  • lovecert:

    If Kris wins, he’ll break the record of having the lowest amount of pimp spots before the finale: 1 (currently 2, held by Carrie Underwood and Kelly Clarkson).

  • canuck:

    Danny is a gifted singer and no I don’t think he was over his head. Most likely he didn’t anticipate getting so far in the competition as afterall he is a church music director from Milwaukee.

    Thanks for looking doing some journalism on Danny’s motives for doing the competition. No I don’t think it was the best time to do so and it is probably best he didn’t win.

    Danny will work through his grief no problem but he might have more of a problem working through the mean-spirited side of human nature displayed towards him.

  • Valentin432:

    After reading through the comments since last night, one of the à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“talking-pointsà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬’so to speakà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬’of Adam fans seems to be: à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Kris is a nice guy, but nothing special.à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  I read that many times.

    Then there is a second argument that Kris doesnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t have a big enough voice for the finaleà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦he doesnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t fit in the American Idol moldà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦in a sense, he is too à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢specialà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢.

    I think Kris is a special singer in the context of AI, it’s true that understated vocalists have never gone to win the show (only Taylor didn’t have the bombast type of vocals), but can you blame TPTB to prefer those? The biggest success stories post AI are the biggest voices: Carrie, Kelly, Daughtry, Clay, JHud…

    However, Kris fits the traditionnal mold of contestants who do well on AI: cute and humble men who comes from the South.
    This is not a question of wheter or not he does have talent, it’s just that the whole underdog story doesn’t fit his profile.

  • dusty:

    Rbidol–

    it would be incredibly good for the show if Kris can break the à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“big voiceà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦must sing LOUDà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  mold of the show. Kris has captured hearts by drawing them into the melody, presenting something subtle. He doesnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t get your attention by simply getting louder as the song progresses, but he makes expert changes to the notes to draw out different words and emotions. He is a craftsman, a true artist.

    Well said; in fact, your entire post was well said!

  • virgo03v:

    it would be incredibly good for the show if Kris can break the à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“big voiceà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦must sing LOUDà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  mold of the show. Kris has captured hearts by drawing them into the melody, presenting something subtle. He doesnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t get your attention by simply getting louder as the song progresses, but he makes expert changes to the notes to draw out different words and emotions. He is a craftsman, a true artist.

    Kris is no more than an artist than Adam is. THe beauty of Adam is that he is versitle. He can sing high and low, loud and soft. You can get both from him. It would be incredibly good for teh show if Adam wins because he would be the first versitile sing. PLUS, he would be the first winner with AMAZING stage presence. He’s the full package.

  • virgo03v:

    This is not a question of wheter or not he does have talent, ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s just that the whole underdog story doesnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t fit his profile.

    Nope. It doesn’t. LOL

  • virgo03v:

    I just got a revelation. Simon doesnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t want Adam to win. He wants to be able to sign him to his SONY/SYSCO/OMG label. He sees the star potential and Adamà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s worldwide appeal. He knows that Adam has the à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  factor and is already an international sensation.

    *sigh* how many times do we have to say that 19 has first dibs on the contestants. Adam will get signed by 19. Even Daughtry got signed by 19.

  • lavender1960:

    Well summarized

    weese
    May 18th, 2009 at 9:20 am
    If Adam does not win it will have nothing to do with his sexuality. It will be because there is a large group of people who hate musical theatre, who never liked groups like Queen and can never imagine enjoying Lady GaGa.
    If Kris does not win it will be because there is a large group of people who consider only big notes and perfect pitch to be great singing.
    What they have in common is they both are very comfortable with who they are as men. They both ooze confidence on stage. They both have artistic talent. It will be the battle of styles, not the battle of sexuality or religion.

    That is it in a nutshell. It will be a battle royale of styles!

  • lavender1960:

    Adam competing with Daughtry? That’s rather funny actually.

    The only AI contestant Adam might directly compete with is Jennifer Hudson if he has a hit Broadway play with a soundtrack release and wins a Tony and a Grammy and an Oscar all in one year.

    He won’t be in the same music niche as any of the AI winners or successful finalists, if his original music is any indication.

    Cook competing with Daughtry yes but I don’t think Daughty is concerned on that score either. Fans of a particular style of music tend to enjoy more than one artist in that style. That is why Daughtry opening for Nickelback was a genius move. Maybe Cook and band can hop on that Nickelback freight train next ride out.

  • TKat:

    Adam competing with Daughtry? Thatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s rather funny actually.

    The only AI contestant Adam might directly compete with is Jennifer Hudson if he has a hit Broadway play with a soundtrack release and wins a Tony and a Grammy and an Oscar all in one year.

    I agree, Adam won’t be competing with Daughtry. Daughtry is a really good rock singer, guitarist and songwriter. But he is squarely in the Pop-Rock/Grunge Rock space. And even if Chris’ sales are impressive, he hasn’t beaten Carrie, Kelly or Clay. And David C. and both David C. will challenge him in record sales.

    IMO both Kris and Adam have the potential to surpass Daughtry in sales because they can sell records to broader audiences. Kris – AC-Country-Pop-Alt-CHR and Adam – Rock-AC-Pop-Alt-CHR .

    I don’t think that we have any idea what Adam is capable of once he is done with AI. His career role models include Bowie, Madonna and Michael Jackson — three performers who evolve and challenge established music categories. That is what Adam says he wants to do. And I believe he can.

    I don’t know, or care, if Adam will win a Tony, Grammy and/or an Oscar. But I would pay a LOT of money to see his Broadway show. So show me that ticket line.

  • First off, let me say I’m a HUGE Adam fan. He has inspired me to get back to pursuing my left-behind dreams. His music makes me happy. I can’t stop listening to him, dancing to his music, and feeling alive. And I will be voting for him tomorrow night, no matter what he does.

    That said, BOTH of these guys are tremendous artists. They are two of the three (Allison would be my third) who consistently, week after week, interpreted songs THEIR way – staying true to themselves and their own styles. Look at Adam’s “Ring of Fire” and Chris’s “She Works Hard for the Money”. Very different performances, for sure, but both very unique, original and ones that I want to listen to over and over again.

    I think the voters will decide this one. Adam has been trying to succeed in music for years without pursuing anything else – even though it has been very difficult. In my opinion, he deserves the “Idol” crown. But Kris, without the pure ambitious drive of Adam, has continued to stick it out, week after week, with great, interesting performances. Is Kris as good of a “vocalist” as Adam? No. Is Kris as good of a performer as Adam? Depends on what kind of performance you like. Kris’s is certain more understated than Adam’s. Is Kris as good of an “artist” as Adam? I think so. Their artistic visions are very different, to be sure, but they are BOTH artists. They both can take an old song, reinterpret it, and make you listen to it differently. They are both a breath of fresh air. I love them both.

    I think Kris will do very well in the U.S. and has a long career in front of him. I think Adam will do very well world-wide (look at all the posts from all over the world on his forum on AI), will be touring for a long time, and will also have tons of other opportunities – such as starring on Broadway (I, for one, would LOVE to see him in a reprise of Rocky Horror), Vegas, and movies (I’d love to see him with Johnny Depp – two guys with “guyliner” ;-) .

    What, to me, is MOST satisfying about this final (and I’ve never watched AI before, so I have nothing to compare it to), is that the PUBLIC has told the judges who THEY want to see. The judges’ attempt to manipulate and control the public’s votes by dissing what, to me, is the greatest female performance of a Joplin song I have ever seen by anyone other than the great Janis herself, was reprehensible. Also, their clear preference for Danny Gokey’s horrendous performance of “Dream On” over Kris’s interesting reinterpretation of “Come Together” made me almost nauseous. I don’t think I’ll watch AI again because I don’t think I can stomach the biased, unfair judging.

    But I WILL go to any concert I can to see Adam Lambert perform. I will also go see Kris. I wish them both long, satisfying, productive careers and look forward to hearing from them for many years to come.

  • I have to say, this season has turned into probably the most exciting season in recent memory. With the exception of Season 5, I think most people have probably had a good idea of who was going to go all the way. Additionally, I can’t wait to see what Allison and Kris can produce post-idol, and I’m sure it’ll be fun to watch Adam’s career develop into something huge whether he wins or not. Having said that, I agree with you MJ that Adam will more than likely win. Unless Kris can produce something buzzworthy like “Hearltess” again, I can’t imagine Adam losing. He’s got more momentum going to into the top 2 and will no doubt give a great performance. But if Kris delivers a showstopper, we might all be surprised.

    Rick

  • moneeamin:

    The point of Idol is to produce long term stars, we know that. Even though it doesn’t always turn out that way, that’s the idea. Somebody earlier questioned Kelly Clarkson’s potential to last another 10 years, I remember that same concern being brought out when she won Idol 7 years ago. Was she going to make it more than one album? Here she is on her 4th. Season 2 had a much more suspenseful feel to it, and look where it got the top 2. Season 5 was the same (though we did get Daughtry out of that season, and Elliott). I think this finale will have to be ’scripted’ differently than years past because of how different the two are. Last year, I feel as though Simon’s comments were a little out of date because it was a mixing of an old Idol finale (with Archie’s song choices and performances) with a new school (with Cook’s concert approach). This year, I feel as though both will try to bring out a concert feel as they are both artists. Adam certainly has the talent to flip the pop world on its back (I know he’s rock, but I just don’t see rock embracing him because of the Idol background.) Kris has major AC vibes about him and should do well there. The winner, though isn’t something I’m entirely ready to call. I picked Kris in my pool just because I’m so far out of it, I’ve got nothing to lose. Neither does he.

  • jelena:

    and adam lambert has to do so much to be even in the same league with lady gaga, you guys are getting way ahead…he hasn’t sold a single album yet…..

  • jelena:

    the world will end if adam will not win american idol….he is that great…..even greater than elvis and the beatles, not to mention madonna and michael jackson, moreso britney spears…

  • LoveIdol8:

    MJ, I have always enjoyed your blog and over the Idol years have pointed a lot of people to this website. But, your blatant criticism of Danny has pushed me over the edge this year. What did you do when you lost your spouse at age 28? I’ll be you cannot answer that. To say that someone cannot make a rational judgement right after that – all I can say is, speak for yourself, if that is the case. I am really disappointed in your comments.

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